The Covid Trilogy: Phase 3

Article contributed by Mike Berman, COO, Day & Nite/All Service

Measured by the millions of worldwide deaths, of course Covid-19’s most excruciating and lasting damage is all about public health. Nothing can, should or ever will marginalize this awful reality. This column is written from a pure business orientation, with particular emphasis on hospitality, touching on public health only as it relates to best indoor environmental quality, workplace hygiene and food safety practices typified by Day & Nite Performance Solutions.

From this perspective, every (business) indicator is, when the Covid-19 era history is written, divided into 3 distinct phases:

• Phase 1, going in, first quarter 2020;
• Phase 2, living under pandemic terror in lockdown, second quarter 2020 thru mid-2^nd quarter 2021, and;
• Phase 3, coming out, this highly anticipated current state;

Phase 3 will prove to be the most challenging of all.

Knowing how painfully difficult phases 1 and 2 have been, how liberating it feels to be back to some semblance of normal and how exciting it is to finally be around people as cities spring back to life, the very notion of a more stressful 3^rd Covid phase is most unsettling.  A conspiracy of apparently unrelated signs and storylines underscore just how complicated things already are and without taking notice, accompanying appropriate fast action,  these many forces can rapidly undermine any plans to fully restore operating and life normalcy.

As Phase 2 was winding down, American Airlines touted “A Great American Summer” ahead as a way to motivate employees in anticipation of skyrocketing demand for air travel.  Yet almost immediately after the promised great summer the leading airline had to backtrack by canceling or delaying several hundred flights. This may seem of little consequence to any restaurant manager thrilled to have packed houses, but underlying causes are not nearly as distant as one might think. After all, American most certainly was no less thrilled by all the flights booked by enthusiastic travelers. Reservations now turned into nightmares for all.

Extreme heat and drought gripping western North America may seem like a regional phenomenon; in fact it’s anything but. Foodservice is already suffering from weather-related disruption in food supply from this vital growing region, further compounded by severe labor shortages where even if the products are available the ongoing and worsening truck driver shortage means there aren’t people to bring it to your establishment.  Unprecedented weather conditions on the heels of an unprecedented pandemic complexities hardly end here.

Lacking a national power grid, even major energy producing states like Texas veer from a winter power outage crisis to equally devastating early summer shutdowns causing more than discomfort for its residents.  Of all scarce and price inflated commodities, none take a backseat to refrigerant, the essential ingredient for temperature control on everything from your walk-in to reach-in to HVAC units. Wildly volatile refrigerant costs will not abate as we go deeper into the summer months, and with the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act of December 2020 legislation’s mandate commercial R-404A and R-410A reduction there’s an entirely new and different set of underlying issues hospitality must contend with. There’s little upside producing more refrigerant about to be sunset while costs of producing new alternatives– always more expensive to begin with– now further include all the inflationary and shortage variables we are already acquainted with. It’s virtually impossible to accurately forecast refrigerant pricing except to note it will be more expensive… far more expensive. And likely less available to boot.

With enough already on foodservice’s plate to delight guests with the plates you serve them, how much time have you spent connecting these many dots, how prepared are you to successfully overcome potentially severe consequences all of these factors will have on your business? Recognizing we are only in the very earliest Phase 3 stages, thinking ahead, how many more of these under-the-radar issues do you suppose will suddenly emerge, the accompanying risks and ramifications?

The Covid-19 trilogy was introduced and propelled by a lack of meaningful preparation; the extent and dimensions of this third act will mostly if not exclusively be a function of how hospitality applies the lessons of planning and preparation.

Having started its Covid-19 planning and preparation late 2019, deploying specific measures in January 2020—well ahead of the crisis!—the Day & Nite family of companies has consistently proven to be a global leader in planning and preparation discipline. Dating back to mid-late 2020 the company’s deep resources had already developed models projecting the exact conditions hospitality is experiencing today and will likely have to confront in the months ahead. Much of this proprietary research has been included in these weekly columns, with this late March 2021 piece as but one example. If Phase 1 and 2 misery was defined by awful planning and preparation, the Phase 3 call to action must be effective planning and preparation to ensure sustained, significant opportunity.

To get out ahead of all the lurking dangers, to take fullest advantage of Day & Nite/All Service/Popular Plumbing/Performance Air Mechanical’s unrivaled resources, sophisticated planning tools and methods for not allowing your business to be victimized by hospitality headwinds in The Covid Trilogy, Act III, email jbf@wearetheone.com.